World Trade Organisation: 20 years of talks and deadlock

December 14, 2015, 10:00 pm

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WTO meetings in Seattle, Qatar, Cancun, Hong Kong, Potsdam, Davos - but still no agreement on the Doha round

January 1995: The World Trade Organisation is formed after the Uruguay round trade negotiations spanning 1986-94 were completed.

December 1999 - World trade talks in the US city of Seattle collapsewhen developing countries walk out after accusing the industrialised countries of failing to open their markets to clothing and food - the most important exports from poor countries. Outside the talks, riot police use red pepper gas to tackle thousands of anti-free trade activists as the biggest demonstration in the US since the end of the Vietnam war erupted into violence. Ministers tell WTO director general, Mike Moore, to work out a way of relaunching the talks. But no progress is expected until at least after a US presidential election in November 2000.

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Doha is dead. Hopes for fairer global trade shouldn’t die, too

December 19, 2015, 11:05 pm

≫ Next: In 2016, let's hope for better trade agreements - and the death of TPP

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It’s a sign of how Doha failed that leftwing protestors no longer target it as a symbol of capitalism. But some good things will fade with it

Over the past few days, trade ministers from scores of countries have spent hours flogging the long-dead horse that is the Doha round of global trade talks in Nairobi – and hardly anyone noticed. The World Trade Organisation, which convened last week’s conference, was once regularly targeted by protesters as the secretive, all-powerful puppet master of global capitalism.

Back in 1999, in the innocent days before the sub-prime crisis laid bare the sinister power of international finance, WTO talks in Seattle broke down amid clouds of tear gas, as anti-capitalist protesters expressed their fury at the rigged rules of the global marketplace, which, as they saw it, entrenched the wealth of the rich and excluded the poor. Yet last week’s gathering, attended by Britain’s Lord (Francis) Maude, barely registered with the world’s angry young radicals, who have turned their attention to bashing bankers – through the Occupy movement, for example.

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In 2016, let's hope for better trade agreements - and the death of TPP

January 10, 2016, 4:36 am

≫ Next: Trade policy is no longer just for political nerds: it matters in the UK and US

≪ Previous: Doha is dead. Hopes for fairer global trade shouldn’t die, too

The Trans-Pacific Partnership may turn out to be the worst trade agreement in decades

Last year was a memorable one for the global economy. Not only was overall performance disappointing, but profound changes – both for better and for worse – occurred in the global economic system.

Most notable was the Paris climate agreement reached last month. By itself, the agreement is far from enough to limit the increase in global warming to the target of 2ºC above the pre-industrial level. But it did put everyone on notice: the world is moving, inexorably, toward a green economy. One day not too far off, fossil fuels will be largely a thing of the past. So anyone who invests in coal now does so at his or her peril. With more green investments coming to the fore, those financing them will, we should hope, counterbalance powerful lobbying by the coal industry, which is willing to put the world at risk to advance its shortsighted interests.

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Trade policy is no longer just for political nerds: it matters in the UK and US

March 27, 2016, 7:44 am

≫ Next: Protectionism was a mistake 80 years ago. Is the world now set to repeat it?

≪ Previous: In 2016, let's hope for better trade agreements - and the death of TPP

Rise of outsiders such as Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn reflects sense of being left behind by globalisation

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have something in common. Both are hostile to the free trade deals that Barack Obama has been negotiating, and both have been campaigning on a platform of putting American workers first.

One thing is certain: if either of these two political insurgents makes it to the White House, there will be no great rush to provide easier access to the world’s biggest market. The agreement that Obama has been seeking with the European Union, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), will be dead in the water.

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Protectionism was a mistake 80 years ago. Is the world now set to repeat it?

April 10, 2016, 1:00 am

≫ Next: European parliament gives China a black eye over trade status

≪ Previous: Trade policy is no longer just for political nerds: it matters in the UK and US

Stubbornly slow growth and bad news from China are pushing world leaders once again towards beggar-thy-neighbour measures to keep out imports

The ghost of 1930s protectionism is looming over the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the Washington-based organisation prepares for its half-yearly meeting on Friday. Ever since the financial crisis led to the biggest global downturn since the Great Depression, finance ministers and central bank governors have comforted themselves with the knowledge that they have avoided the mistakes made eight decades ago.

Back then, tariffs were raised to keep out foreign imports in a series of beggar-thy-neighbour moves designed to safeguard jobs and domestic output. Currency devaluations as countries came off the gold standard simply added to the protectionist pressure.

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European parliament gives China a black eye over trade status

May 12, 2016, 11:00 am

≫ Next: Here’s the economic reality of Brexit – without the unicorn fantasy | Anton Muscatelli

≪ Previous: Protectionism was a mistake 80 years ago. Is the world now set to repeat it?

Steel dumping by Beijing has led to anti-Chinese sentiment among EU states, resulting in huge vote against giving country market economy status

The timing of the steel crisis could hardly have been worse for China. Beijing is desperate to be granted market economy status within the World Trade Organisation but is running into stiff opposition from both the US and Europe.

With Chinese steel being dumped on global markets, the European parliament on Thursday voted against the idea that China should be treated the same as the EU or the US by a thumping margin. The decision puts pressure on the European commission to either oppose market economic status outright or include safeguards for specific industries.

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Here’s the economic reality of Brexit – without the unicorn fantasy | Anton Muscatelli

May 23, 2016, 2:00 am

≫ Next: WTO head says leaving EU would cost UK consumers £9bn a year

≪ Previous: European parliament gives China a black eye over trade status

Leave campaigners conjure up a scenario in which the UK can design its own economic environment. But the impact of an EU exit is complex

One reason why the arguments for Brexit are so beguiling is because it’s easy to imagine an alternative world where some of the current laws of economics or politics don’t apply.

Leave campaigners have tried to conjure up such a fantasy world in which, after leaving the EU, Britain has an opportunity to design its own economic environment with its ideal configuration of free trade, limited labour mobility, less regulation and foreign investment. They talk of a sovereign nation that will dominate post-Brexit negotiations with our former EU partners and the rest of the world. With the odd unicorn and fairy thrown in for good measure.

More worryingly, non-tariff barriers might actually increase following Brexit

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WTO head says leaving EU would cost UK consumers £9bn a year

May 25, 2016, 11:53 am

≫ Next: WTO chief says post-Brexit trade talks must start from scratch

≪ Previous: Here’s the economic reality of Brexit – without the unicorn fantasy | Anton Muscatelli

Roberto Azevedo says Britain would be forced to renegotiate trade deals in move akin to joining WTO from scratch

The watchdog for global trade has said leaving the European Union would push back trade barriers at a cost of £9bn a year to British consumers.

World Trade Organisation boss, Roberto Azevedo, said Britain would be forced to renegotiate trade deals with all 161 WTO members in an unprecedented move that would be akin to joining from scratch. The impact of new tariffs in overseas markets would also be a burden for UK businesses, adding a further £5.5bn to the costs of trade, he said.

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WTO chief says post-Brexit trade talks must start from scratch

June 7, 2016, 4:37 am

≫ Next: EU commissioner says Brexit negotiation must precede trade talks

≪ Previous: WTO head says leaving EU would cost UK consumers £9bn a year

Roberto Azevêdo says leave vote would present complex and unusual situation with UK unable to ‘cut and paste’ its former EU-negotiated trade deals

Negotiations about the shape of the UK’s post-Brexit trade arrangements would have to start from scratch after a leave vote in the EU referendum, the head of the World Trade Organisation said as he admitted there had been no preliminary discussions with the UK government.

Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO director-general, said he expected any talks to be long and difficult, adding: “We haven’t had any discussions about the process. We don’t know what the process would be. We do know it would be a very unusual situation.”

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EU commissioner says Brexit negotiation must precede trade talks

July 1, 2016, 12:44 am

≫ Next: EU vows to toughen up trade defences against cheap Chinese imports

≪ Previous: WTO chief says post-Brexit trade talks must start from scratch

Cecilia Malmström says business between the UK and EU should be conducted under WTO rules before trade deal is signed

Britain will not be able to start talks on a new trade arrangement with the EU until other aspects of its exit have been settled, the trade commissioner, Cecilia Malmström has said.

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EU vows to toughen up trade defences against cheap Chinese imports

July 20, 2016, 10:00 am

≫ Next: Why Uber has been taken for a ride in China | John Naughton

≪ Previous: EU commissioner says Brexit negotiation must precede trade talks

European commission promises action against foreign producers flooding world markets with subsidised goods

The EU executive has vowed to toughen up Europe’s trade defences in a bid to prevent industry from being overwhelmed by artificially cheap Chinese imports.

The European commission promised “faster and firmer” action against foreign producers flooding world markets with subsidised goods, dashing China’s hopes of gaining “market economy status” under existing trade rules.

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Why Uber has been taken for a ride in China | John Naughton

August 6, 2016, 10:59 pm

≫ Next: Brexit means Brexit … but the big question is when?

≪ Previous: EU vows to toughen up trade defences against cheap Chinese imports

Uber’s capitulation to its Chinese rival last week should temper the wishful thinking of Brexit cheerleaders

The big news last week was that Uber, the California-based ride-hailing company, threw in the towel in China. It announced that its Chinese rival, Didi Chuxing, would acquire all of the assets of UberChina – including its brand, business operations and data. In return, Uber gets a stake in Didi Chuxing worth £5.3bn.

Why is this significant? How long have you got? In the first place it confirms that the plans for world domination cherished by all the US-based tech giants come to a juddering halt when they reach the Chinese border. China is already the world’s biggest internet market, and it’s set to get much bigger in the next decade, so Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft saw it as the logical next territory for conquest. Three of them – Google, Amazon and Microsoft – have already had to withdraw, licking their wounds. (Facebook never really got started.)

You will recall that China was seen by Brexiters as one of the exciting trading partners for a liberated UK…

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Brexit means Brexit … but the big question is when?

August 21, 2016, 9:35 pm

≫ Next: David Davis admits possibility of UK exiting EU without trade deal

≪ Previous: Why Uber has been taken for a ride in China | John Naughton

Leaving the EU may not happen soon given the government does not know what it wants and is not yet equipped to ask for it

Two months ago on Tuesday, Britain voted to leave the European Union. The shock was immense; the fallout dramatic. But then summer came. The early turbulence subsided and normality (more or less) returned.

Brexit, though, has not yet begun to happen.

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David Davis admits possibility of UK exiting EU without trade deal

September 13, 2016, 10:29 am

≫ Next: Plenty of reasons for a second EU referendum | Letters

≪ Previous: Brexit means Brexit … but the big question is when?

Brexit secretary says it is not a very likely outcome, but Vote Leave Watch says it contradicts leave campaign’s promise

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has admitted the UK could have to revert to World Trade Organisation tariffs if it leaves the EU without having struck a trade deal with the bloc.

The cabinet minister said this was not a very likely outcome but still a possibility if the UK was not successful in talks with the EU.

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Plenty of reasons for a second EU referendum | Letters

September 22, 2016, 11:23 am

≫ Next: Liam Fox speech hints at government confusion over Brexit

≪ Previous: David Davis admits possibility of UK exiting EU without trade deal

Rafael Behr (Opinion, 21 September) and senior Liberal Democrats who question the wisdom of Tim Farron’s commitment to a second referendum once the terms of Brexit are settled, assume present attitudes will persist. They ignore the likelihood that negotiations will end in “a hard Brexit”.

Continued membership of the single market and of the EU customs union is the least likely outcome. Outside both, the prospect of an easy conclusion of favourable new free trade agreements (FTAs) with the rest of the world is a pipe dream. We would not only need a new FTA with the EU, likely to be a protracted negotiation as it has to be agreed by all 27 members, but also with some 50 countries with which the EU now has FTAs, as well as those with which it is now negotiating, principally China and the US. We would also have to re-enter the World Trade Organisation, which involves making a number of commitments that have to be approved by all 164 WTO members.

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Liam Fox speech hints at government confusion over Brexit

September 27, 2016, 9:50 am

≫ Next: Liam Fox looks to WTO in hint at 'hard Brexit' stance

≪ Previous: Plenty of reasons for a second EU referendum | Letters

International trade minister’s WTO speech was billed as hard Brexit push, but critics say lack of detail sends mixed messages

Liam Fox has used a speech to the World Trade Organisation to portray post-Brexit Britain as a “proud and outward-looking trading nation” that would battle for liberalised commerce outside the EU.

The address in Geneva was billed in advance as the international trade secretary making a significant push for a so-called hard Brexit, taking the UK outside the EU’s single market. However, critics said the lack of any new details on the terms of Brexit indicated confusion in the government over the issue.

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Liam Fox looks to WTO in hint at 'hard Brexit' stance

September 29, 2016, 5:17 am

≫ Next: The World Bank and the IMF won't admit their policies are the problem

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Trade secretary says UK has ‘golden’ chance for trade with other markets, emphasising World Trade Organisation membership

Liam Fox has hailed the opportunity for Britain to become a fully independent member of the World Trade Organisation after leaving the EU, indicating that he appears to favour a “hard Brexit”.

In a major speech, the trade secretary said Brexit was a “golden opportunity” for the UK to trade with the rest of the world, particularly developing markets.

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The World Bank and the IMF won't admit their policies are the problem

October 9, 2016, 4:22 am

≫ Next: EU firms could pay higher tariffs to export to UK than vice versa, says thinktank

≪ Previous: Liam Fox looks to WTO in hint at 'hard Brexit' stance

Those who run the global economy realise it could blow up at any time, but are carrying on regardless

We hear you, poor people. That was the message that blared out from Washington last week. It came from Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund. It came from Jim Kim of the World Bank. It came from Roberto Azevêdo of the World Trade Organisation. It came from every finance minister and central bank governor.

The people who run the global economy wanted the world to know that they understood what had caused the Brexit vote and given Donald Trump a shot at the White House. They talked a lot about the need for inclusive growth and a capitalism that worked for all. To those who have been left behind in the past three decades, they said: we get it, we feel your pain.

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EU firms could pay higher tariffs to export to UK than vice versa, says thinktank

October 23, 2016, 4:01 pm

≫ Next: There's comfort in the GDP figures – but it's strictly early days

≪ Previous: The World Bank and the IMF won't admit their policies are the problem

Civitas finds that if Britain turned to WTO terms after Brexit it would pay £5.2bn a year in tariffs versus £12.9bn for EU firms

EU firms exporting goods into the UK face a potential tariff bill two-and-a-half times more than the equivalent for British firms sending goods the other way, if there is no new trade bill in place at Brexit, according to a thinktank.

EU firms would have to pay £12.9bn a year in tariffs to the UK if Britain turned to World Trade Organisation terms after it left the bloc, the report by Civitas said. The most affected sector would be car manufacturers, who would pay a theoretical £3.9bn.

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There's comfort in the GDP figures – but it's strictly early days

October 27, 2016, 11:57 am

≫ Next: Mapping the Trump factor: 10 countries and regions feeling the heat

≪ Previous: EU firms could pay higher tariffs to export to UK than vice versa, says thinktank

Philip Hammond’s response to the data shows that he also knows it is too soon to take a ‘steady as she goes’ approach

Philip Hammond took comfort from the latest GDP figures – and well he might. When the chancellor moved into No 11 there was still the possibility that doom-and-gloom forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and even the Treasury itself would come to pass.

That Britain has avoided a recession and, more than that, maintained an annual growth rate of around 2% is a testament to the resilience of an economy that has grown solidly for the last three years and surpassed all other G7 countries this year.

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